nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price. There are highly profitable companies that nevertheless see their stock price turn around.

Simply knowing that demand for a product has increased - even increased massively - surely can't tell you that the stock of the company that makes that product is going to increase in value, without also knowing whether or not that increase in demand is already reflected in the current price of the stock

Was there really anything "intimate" about the knowledge you possessed? You were on the other side of a large market with apparent high demand and a supply chain that can most easily be described as "extremely monopolized."

> when redditors we're posting that "Nvidia is the best shorting opportunity" without any of the knowledge of the market.

It looks to me like it was done with real knowledge of the overall market outside of single pallet moves and understanding of the risky position Nvidia put themselves into to capitalize on this. The bet either paid off completely or it severely tanked the company while crippling their consumer product division.

Nvidia took a top heavy position and bet the farm that TSMC could and would keep up with their demand. Was that the bet you understood yourself to be taking when investing in them?

Your anecdote is just survivorship bias and you are one of the survivors.

I have strong knowledge of this is space and don't invest in it exactly for that reason. LLMs are great, but the hype is greater, and I personally don't want to have my income and my investments correlated.

NVIDIA may be selling a lot, but their P/E ratio is nearly 80, so that price isn't fundamentals alone. All we need is this ages equivalent to "perceptrons can't XOR" and there will be a fast correction.

This could go on a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA doubled over the next few years. After all crypto is still doing well despite everyone more or less agreeing it's a scam. I can also imagine world were something is revealed in a few months and everyone flees from "AI".

The only thing I know about the stock market is arbitrage theory still holds, and the future value of any stock tends to be it's current price + risk free rate over time.

The reality is that your gamble was just as much gambling as their gamble. You just happened to win.

Has demand saturated while downstream AI engineers tinker on actually profitable use cases or is it going to keep growing exponentially.

Probably most stock price models assume at minimum linear growth for the next 5-10 years. But if the future reality is that it nearly plateauing and will likely drop off...

Exactly. I invested in NVDA when it was $21.85, after I saw a demo of Deep Learning for the first time. This was long before LLMs and generative AI. I was blown away by how you can upload any random image and it would tell you what is in the image. Then I learned about NVDA and CUDA and how DNNs leverage them and decided it would be a good investment.

Even if the stock falls 3/4 I've had an incredible return and I just don't see the ai hype dying down soon, though im always trying to feel out that inflection point. I'm not super stoked about the ability of AI to really be monetized that well in its current form, but I'm happy to be invested in the picks and shovel business behind it.

The en-vogue group think on Reddit now is to show total disdain towards all AI, and insist that the 'AI PC' is solely a marketing tactic for Intel, Dell and Microsoft to sell more computers, mostly because it really seems most people on reddit don't do any work to appreciate the benefits AI can provide to productive people.

Studies in behavioral finance are clear that ordinary investors should not invest in individual stocks over indexes. There are too many pitfalls.

Even hedge funds with teams of sector analysts rarely beat the market consistently.

The problem then becomes getting out before the rest of the market and before the good times stop.

Like a party, perhaps one should sell while everyone is still having a good time.

I'd think, it's as important to understand people than it is to understand businesses when it comes to the stock market.

Said that, don't take financial advise from me, I haven't had much luck with my bets.

Would you buy a lemon for 2.336T? No? Probably not. What do you specifically value Nvidia at? Not the share price. Your own calculation. You, AnotherGoodName, are going to buy Nvidia outright. You're basically Elon Musk, and you think you can create better AI chips.

You don't know what that number is? Then you don't intimately know the value of the company.

Knowing tech intimately means nothing.

You know how much a banana costs, right? You probably wouldn't buy one for $10.

"I had a great luck company called Hanes. They test marketed a product called L'Eggs in Boston and I think in Columbus, Ohio, maybe three or four markets. And Carolyn, ah, brought this product home and she was buying and she said, "It's great." And she almost got a black belt in shopping. She's a very good shopper. If we hadn't had these three kids, she now -- when Beth finally goes off to college, I think we'll be able to resume her training. But she's a very good shopper and she would buy these things. She said, "They're really great."

And I did a little bit of research. I found out the average woman goes to the supermarket or a drugstore once a week. And they go a woman's specialty store or department store once every six weeks. And all the good hosiery, all the good pantyhose is being sold in department stores. They were selling junk in the supermarkets. They were selling junk in the drugstores. So this company came up with a product. They rack-jobbed it, they had all the sizes, all the fits, a down they never advertised price. They just advertised "This fits. You'll enjoy it." And it was a huge success and it became my biggest position and I always worried somebody'd come out with a competitive product, and about a year-and-a-half they were on the market another large company called Kaiser-Roth came out with a product called No Nonsense.

They put it right next to L'eggs in the supermarket, right next to L'eggs in the drugstore. I said, "Wow, I gotta figure this one out." So I remember buying -- I bought 48 different pairs at the supermarket, colors, shapes, and sizes. They must have wondered what kind of house I had at home when I got to the register. They just let me buy it. So I brought it into the office. I gave it to everybody. I said, "Try this out and come back and see what's the story with No Nonsense." And people came back to me in a couple weeks and said, "It's not as good." That's what fundamental research is. So I held onto Hanes and it was a huge stock and it was bought out by Consolidated Foods, which is now called Sara Lee, and it's been a great division of that company. It might have been a thirty bagger instead of a ten bagger, if it hadn't been bought out."

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/...

He talks about this more in One Up On Wallstreet about how an observant retail investor who goes to the supermarket or department store or fast food chains, or in your example a loading dock, every week is actually more in touch with what's happening in some businesses than some institutional investors.

The service here has really gone down over the years, product sucks everyone is switching to the competitor, friends can't stop raving about this new product.

I don't know how well that advice holds up in today's market but it's a fun idea, maybe just for the play-money account.

i lost 50% on palantir cause i listened to wall street bets lmao

Turns out who never owned a car and never invested in any stocks got it right.

TBH no one can predict the market.

High growth is fragile. The value of Nvidia has dropped 50% multiple times in the past. Recression, or temporary oversupply, anything can mess it.

My company uses Azure for years. I don't expect them to change that anytime soon, I mean we're a SAP customer for 40+ years and SAP is Germany's No. 1 price gouging company. We use MS products for decades as well despite them being more expensive every year and I still do more or less the same in Excel today as I did years ago.

I think you have a misunderstanding of how B2C works and especially when we talk about enterprise level SW solutions. No CEO in their mind is switching business operation SW if a competitor is on sale lol.

Saying it won't last should not be profound because that fact should be self-evident. The only reason it becomes profound is because a lot of people are just that stupid.

And there is nobody else they can buy from on their timelines.

edit: "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger raised a few eyebrows by attributing Nvidia's current dominance of the AI market to luck" - https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-respon....

All that for a measly 4% after hours bump? It's like "the street" is tired of this trick/doesn't have much more to give.

The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise.

When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions and Nvidia is happy to sit in the background selling billions of dollars in compute.

True, but currently, no one can match the offering of NVidia, they are the sole pioneer in this market. AMD is yet to show any viable option (both on the HW and SW layers).

I tell you where, from Nvidia direclty or from a CSP renting it to them. Oh wait, aren't MS, Amazon and Google such CSP? Oh right! Could that mean that Nvidia sells GPUs to CSPs which then rent it to customers or rather companies which aren't CSPs? So how do these other companies use Nvidia's GPUs from renting? Let me guess, maybe Nvidia Enterprise AI SW suite? Bingo!

And how does Nvidia benefit from these other companies? Or right, Nvidia gets $4500 license fee per GPU if a company uses Nvidia Enterprise AI solution. Oh wait, does that mean that Nvidia might be into building a SaaS business? Correct, but psst... nobody listens to Nvidia management so only few have a clue. Clearly, Nvidia is earning money only from HW to use it for hobbies like Clara, Isaac, DriveSim, Omniverse and many more... GTC was way more about SW development than HW but that was just show to keep people entertained. Nvidia also is a nice HW company employing more SW engineers than HW engineers so that SW engineers also get a chance for work.

TSMC fab capacity and packaging are the bottlenecks for revenue growth.

https://analyticsindiamag.com/is-cuda-nvidias-competitive-mo...

AMD actually commissioned a drop-in CUDA emulator and we found out 'cause they stopped financing it and they open-sourced it as parts of the contract.

I would speculate that no one actually wants a "clone wars" situation since it would commodify the GPU and reduce everyone's profit rate.

The underlying technology is the same.

It's quite amazing to me how the stock splits tends to boost the price, or at least it's the perception. What's the underlying mecanism ?

Already priced in. Look at comps of PE ratios in tech focused companies and you'll see what I mean.

Shipping rocm releases that don't run on a bunch of their GPUs is just an absurd choice, there's no way to defend that one.

Gaming is where Nvidia is least unique; they run standards-compliant software by supporting well-documented APIs in-hardware (eg. DX12/Vulkan). AMD does the same thing, and even Intel is able to scale up a simple dGPU setup.

The hard part is software. Nvidia "won" because they spent 10 years developing CUDA when everyone else was smothering their OpenCL implementations in the crib. Now it doesn't matter what Nvidia ships, as long as it's fast and supports CUDA. The Blackwell/Grace systems seem like a good example of this.

TPUs have a slim shot at disrupting things; NPUs are pretty much dead-on-arrival. TPUs are hopeful because they genuinely represent a yak-shaving project that can ignore CUDA semantics to simply infer or train faster. It will be hard to make TPUs as efficient as TSMC-manufactured Nvidia chips, but there's room for disruption given how expensive a single GH200 is.

NPUs... I hate to be a pessimist, but they don't have a very bright feature. In the best of scenarios, an NPU is redundant silicon idling or in-usage to alleviate pressure from the more-powerful main GPU and CPU. Seems great on paper; until you start scaling to LLM/Stable Diffusion size. Now you're bottlenecked by such a low-power component, and have to switch to the GPU which was more powerful all-along. In the worst of cases, the NPU is an expensive waste of space on your SOC. Unlike TPU pods, I think there is no hope for NPUs to compete directly with CUDA. If anything it increases the demand for high-performance training compute, which Nvidia monopolizes.

https://www.xero.com/us/glossary/fiscal-year/

For example, there are easy to read sites with explanations like https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-do-i-determine-my-compan..., and less easy to read things like Form 1128.

The fiscal year is a pretty standard finance concept, so anything in that area isn't going to bother with an explainer; you're just expected to know.

From the outside looking in, it just seems nuts. If I ever found a company I'm going to do my best to get my fiscal year to == calendar, if I can. It also annoys me when companies needlessly use it internally. Mine does, I have no idea when the quarter ends anymore.

¹ish. I think the IRS has a few rules.

Fiscal years are about when you'll pay tax. This is Q1 of four quarters to be reported before Nvidia pays tax in 2025.